Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.
Identifieur interne : 000070 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000069; suivant : 000071Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.
Auteurs : Kevin Linka [États-Unis] ; Alain Goriely [Royaume-Uni] ; Ellen Kuhl [États-Unis]Source :
- Biomechanics and modeling in mechanobiology [ 1617-7940 ] ; 2021.
Abstract
The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of [Formula: see text] days. Our findings suggest that trends in local mobility allow us to forecast the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 for a window of two weeks and adjust local control strategies in real time.
DOI: 10.1007/s10237-020-01408-2
PubMed: 33449276
PubMed Central: PMC7809648
Affiliations:
- Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Californie, Oxfordshire
- Oxford, Stanford (Californie)
- Université Stanford, Université d'Oxford
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type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of [Formula: see text] days. Our findings suggest that trends in local mobility allow us to forecast the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 for a window of two weeks and adjust local control strategies in real time.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33449276</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>22</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1617-7940</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2021</Year><Month>Jan</Month><Day>15</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Biomechanics and modeling in mechanobiology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Biomech Model Mechanobiol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1007/s10237-020-01408-2</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of [Formula: see text] days. 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